Report: NVIDIA Only Meeting 7.4% Of Demand Right Now, RTX 3070 To Have Limited Quantity As Well

Before we begin, fair warning, this article is based on a single data source (Proshop). While it appears to be perfectly in line with everything we are seeing (and hearing), I would still urge to exercise caution since at the end of the day - it is a single data point and may not represent the wider market conditions. All that said, this is some pretty solid numbers that, we have heard from multiple sources, closely reflect the situation of most small to mid-size retailers and the severe supply-demand mismatch that NVIDIA GPUs are currently facing.

ProShop is a large e-tailer that regularly deals with the DIY market and unlike most other retailers they have kindly taken to publishing the current status of their supply line with various manufacturers. This allows us to glimpse the state of the supply chain for NVIDIA GPUs - at least for small-to-mid-sized retailers in Germany/Denmark - and estimate future conditions.

According to the data provided by them, they have ordered a total of 15117 NVIDIA RTX 3000 series GPUs from various AIBs and have only received (or are going to receive at the time of writing) 1112 GPUs. This means that the company is only getting 7.4% of the demand from various NVIDIA AIBs. The complete set of data from ProShop (at the time of writing) is given below along with an explanation of the variables.

Explanation:

For the RTX 3090, ProShop ordered a total of 1912 GPUs from various AIBs, out of which they have only received (or are going to receive at the time of writing) a total of 200 GPUs. This equals a supply vs demand fulfillment of 10.5% on an aggregate basis. On the retail side, ProShop has customer preorders amounting to 290 right now (which means they are already unable to fulfill 31% of preorders).

For the RTX 3080, ProShop ordered a total of 8925 GPUs from various AIBs, out of which they have only received (or are going to receive at the time of writing) a total of 621 GPUs. This equals a supply vs demand fulfillment of 7.0% on an aggregate basis. On the retail side, ProShop has customer preorders amounting to 3733 right now (which means they are unable to fulfill 84% of preorders).

For the newly launched RTX 3070, ProShop ordered a total of 4280 GPUs from various AIBs, out of which they have only received (or are going to receive at the time of writing) a total of 291 GPUs. This equals a supply vs demand fulfillment of 6.8%.

So it seems NVIDIA is currently only able to meet under 10% of demand based on this data but there are two obvious caveats associated with this. 1) The numbers could theoretically look very different for huge retailers like Amazon, BestBuy, Walmart, etc. and 2) We do not know what the previous demand baseline is - although I would hazard a guess that it was at least, not this low.

There have also been rumors that the company may be planning a shift back to TSMC 7nm - which if true would indicate unforeseen yield issues with Samsung's 8nm - although I personally [caution: opinion] think that is an unlikely eventuality [/opinion]. As per our reports, supply should improve significantly in early 2021 as the volume blocks ordered by NVIDIA kick in and should be able to meet a significant chunk of all this unmet demand - provided of course, the miners don't have anything to say about it.